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China's Exports Rise 32%


16-May-2005 - China Radio International
China's exports rose faster than its imports for a sixth straight month in April as the country shipped more electronics and textiles abroad, and government investment curbs damped demand for foreign goods.
Exports rose 32 percent from a year earlier to $62.2 billion, while imports increased 16 percent to $57.6 billion, the Beijing-based customs bureau said on its Web site. That left a trade surplus of $4.59 billion, compared with $5.73 billion in March and a deficit of $2.26 billion a year earlier.

``The textile story has been strong, it's electronics, it's everything, and U.S. consumer demand is still rising at a good clip,'' said Jonathan Anderson, chief Asia Pacific economist at UBS AG in Hong Kong. He has raised his export growth forecast for the year to as much as 27 percent from a maximum 20 percent.

The figures may aggravate tensions with the U.S., which reported a record $162 billion trade deficit with China last year and is calling for a loosening of the yuan's peg to the dollar. American lawmakers say the peg gives China's exporters an unfair advantage and are considering imposing a 27.5 percent tariff on all Chinese imports unless the currency is allowed to strengthen.

``Surging Chinese exports to the U.S. and a surging Chinese trade surplus will produce the political equivalent of a perfect storm if they cling closely to the current peg,'' said Brad Setser, a former international economist at the U.S. Treasury who now works for Roubini Global Economics in New York.

Clothing Technology

The median estimates in a Bloomberg News survey of seven economists showed export growth in April was expected to be unchanged from the previous month at 33 percent and import gains, were forecast to slow to 18 percent from 19 percent.

Exports of clothing in the first four months of the year rose 16 percent to $19.3 billion, the customs bureau said, without giving an April figure. Overseas sales of technology products rose 33 percent to $60.5 billion, while shipments of electrical equipment and electronic exports gained 30 percent to $46 billion.

Zhai Zhihong, a department head at China's National Bureau of Statistics, said May 10 export growth may slump to 10 percent this year in the event that the yuan is allowed to appreciate by 3 percent to 5 percent. Were the yuan to strengthen by 15 percent or more, overseas sales may drop, he said.

Goldman Sachs Group Inc. last month estimated a 5 percent yuan appreciation would cause most of China's trade surplus to disappear, while a 10 percent strengthening would lead to a 15 percent drop in exports and result in a ``small deficit''.

The yuan's value has been kept at about 8.3 per dollar since 1995, a link that's enabled the currency to track a 5.7 percent slide against the euro and 5.9 percent fall versus the yen in the past year.

Jim O'Neill, Goldman's London-based head of global economic research, says a widening of the yuan's trading band accompanied by a revaluation of around 5 percent would take some of the international political and trade pressure off China.

Imports of crude oil into China, the world's second-largest user of the fuel, increased 23 percent to 12.3 million tons in April.


16-May-2005 - China Radio International

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