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On the keywords for Chinese economy in 2004
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29-Dec-2004 - People's Daily |
Macro-control: "China, on the long march towards the modernization has taken in a cup of refreshing juice, readjusted its paces for the time to come and added in some fuels", said an official of the State Statistics Bureau about the macro-control that attracts the worldwide attention. Since the later half of last year the excessive fixed-asset investment, the relatively tightened supply and demand relation and too much input of currency and reduction in grain output¡the overheated phenomena came to appear in the Chinese economy being operated at higher level. To maintain a stable and harmonious development the Chinese government put into practice in time and resolutely the macro-control policy, held strictly the two valves for the use of land and credit and introduced a series of policies of supporting some sectors and clamping down on others by making a differential treatment of them and brought out the policy for supporting the grain production, restricting the management of land use and controlling the excessive growth in fixed-asset investment. After the "spotted control" the Chinese economy has realized a "stable progress", hopeful to achieve a "soft-landing". The statistics indicate that the Chinese economy witnessed an increase of 9.5 percent in the previous three quarters of this year while the fixed asset investment a drastic downturn of 29.9 percent and a reasonable growth in currency supply.
Raising rate of deposit interest: On 28 October, The Central Bank of China (PBOC) announced a raise of 0.27 percent for deposit interest. The "little leap" of the deposit interest for people's currency put an end to the decrease of the interest rate in the 9 successive years of the past, thus catching the attention of the business circles at home and abroad. The securities, credit and housing markets at home reacted accordingly and it caused a little shock on the world financial market and the major media in overseas all reported the "lightning interest raise". However, for the most majority of the ordinary Chinese people, to change the current deposit into fixed one, to increase the buying in of investment policies and the long-and-short-term treasury bonds have become their favored ways of investment while more and more debits, the dual "borrowers" for auto-and-housing loans began to take a careful consideration of how to pay off their loans. The public opinion here held, the adjustment of the interest rate indicated that the macro-control measures are shifting gradually from the administrative means to economic and market-regulated measures, a change in the orientation of currency policy.
Appreciation of the people's currency (RMB): This year has witnessed a heated discussion on whether there was a revaluation of the people's currency. From a higher reserve of foreign exchanges to the flowing of the "hot money" and from the repeated guessing of economists domestic and foreign to the time and again statements of the central bank and now it's now nearing the end of the year the arguments as to its advantages or disadvantages of it are still ringing in the ear. Actually when the economy is forging favorably ahead the Chinese government has always been carrying on the mechanism reform of the exchange rate. The bringing-out of the policy most lately about the loosening of restriction on the capital management also meant for a ceaseless reduction of pressures on the people's currency. It is imaginable that the arguments will be carried on and the balancing is still in the hatching. However, we may have to get some enlightenment in Premier Wen Jiabao's yearend address, in which he said, in consideration of the stability of the macro-economy in China and to ensure the scientific planning for a healthy and sustainable development of the Chinese economy and the influence on the peripheral countries it is a complicated and forwarding process to practice the elastic mechanism of the exchange rate of the people's currency. This can be regarded as the best answer to the question of revaluation of the people's currency in 2004.
"No.1 document": The full name of the document is "Notions of the Central Committee of the CPC and the State Council on Policies for Promoting Increase of Income for Farmers". The document is the greatest gospel passed by the Chinese government to the 900 million farmers in China at the very beginning of the year of 2004. The No.1 document stressed that concerted efforts must be made to support the grain production in the major grain producing areas and promote the grain-producing farmers to increase their income. And in the meantime it has also put forward for the first time to get a given proportion of money from land-lease to support for the agricultural reclamation in the major grain-producing areas. Under the guidance of the "No.1 document" the year of 2004 has witnessed a series of more direct, powerful and resolute policies and measures "good for the agricultural development". The statistics show that the actual cash income for farmers in the previous three quarters saw an increase of 11.4 percent, the reform of taxes and fees helping reduced 30 percent of burdens off from the farmers and as a result the low grain production witnessed for the first time a recovering increase over that of the past five years. The "gospel" at the beginning of the year in the Chinese homeland has become a "gift" into the hands of the farmers by the end of the year.
"Nine articles of the State Council": Should we say that the year of 2004 be an important period for the development of the capital market in China the "Nine articles of the State Council" should be a worthy landmark policy of the year brought out in an integrated way. On 31 January 2004, the State Council issued the "Notions of the State Council on Promoting Reform and Opening to Outside World and for Stable Development of Capital Market". The document, which was later addressed as the "Nine articles of the State Council" raised in the form of a document of the State Council the energetic development of capital market to a strategic height of the national economic development and redefined the Chinese stock market from the market framework and operational mechanism. Though the year of 2004 saw a plain manifestation in the stock market yet people believe since the "Nine articles of the State Council" has cleared up a path and orientation for the reform of the Chinese stock market, there is still something to be expected in 2005.
Shortage of workforce: The emergence of the "mobile workforce" in 1980s began to fall short of supply since last spring in China's coastal areas. The analytical report issued the other day by the Chinese Academy of Sciences pointed out that the so-called "workforce hunger" taking place at the beginning of the year in the Pearl River Delta was actually a distorted phenomenon incurred under the condition of the outstanding increase of farmers' income and the intensified relation between enterprises and workforces in the workforce supply market. Scholars are of opinion that the wage standard worked out by some enterprises and local governments for peasant workforce are on the lower side and their social insurance cannot be ensured while the increase of farmers' income led to the comparative income change. This is the major reason for the big reduction of the peasant workforce. Therefore, to map out the lowest wage standard for peasant workforce and make improved their social insurance work and determine a reasonable insurance level will be the focal point for the Chinese economic work in future.
Shortage of power supply: Some people say, the year of 2004 is the "power-supply shortage year" in China. The energy crisis that reached its climax at the beginning of last summer raised the curtain of the intensified supply and transportation of coal, oil and transmission of electricity. The encouragement of using the electricity in many places was replaced by "switching off to restrict the use of electricity" and the once call-off of "night scene projects" in the developed areas in east China. Except the power-saving measures loudly advocated by the power-experts, the louder appeal to strengthen the policy designing by the government for the market regulating of the electricity price can be heard from day to day. But now, the smooth passing over of the "climax of power shortage" and the practice of macro-control has made all this relieved. An official of the research office under the State Council expressed "it's no need to be in 2006 and there will probably be a partial power-supply surplus in the later half of next year."
Circulating economy: A group of numerals, of which we couldn't feel proud, has made China to face more reasonably the hidden crisis of energy resources behind the speedy economic growth, reconsider the significance of "development". In 2003, China consumed some 30 percent of the total iron and steel product, 40 percent of total cement and 31 percent of the total coal product of the whole world but the GDP came only to 4 percent of the world total. Therefore, a circulating economy, namely to turn the linear growth of the traditional economy of "resources ¨C products ¨C pollution discharges" into a circulating and feedback type in economic growth of "resources ¨C products ¨C recovered resources", with highly effective and circulating use of resources as its core, to make the low consumption, low discharge yet high efficiency a basic feature in the economic growth, is now becoming a choice of importance for breaking through the bottleneck of resource environment, thereby realizing a sustainable development. |
29-Dec-2004 - People's Daily |
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