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Hong Kong-Listed shipping lines and port operators are set to deliver strong 2004 profits, reflecting a surge in the mainland's exports and its hearty appetite for raw materials.

"The industry has not seen its peak yet, although profit growth may be slower this and next year," said K.Y. Ng, an analyst at Nomura International (Hong Kong).

Shanghai-based oil and bulk carrier China Shipping Development Co., which also lists shares in Shanghai, is expected to post a 72 percent rise in 2004 net profit to 1.75 billion yuan (US$211 million), according to a consensus forecast from 12 analysts.

Hong Kong-based dry bulk shipping group Pacific Basin Shipping Ltd. is expected to report net profit of US$103.8 million, based on forecasts from five analysts.

In Hong Kong, the share prices of bulk shipping lines have pulled back slightly on recent concern over the Central Government¡¯s plan to limit iron ore imports through a licensing system from March 1.

Container leasing firm and port investor COSCO Pacific, controlled by China's largest shipping group China Ocean Shipping (Group) Co. (COSCO), is scheduled to report its 2004 earnings March 4.

The consensus profit forecast for COSCO Pacific is US$199.7 million, up 29 percent from 2003.

This week, the world's top independent oil tanker firm, Frontline, and Asia's largest commodities trader and bulk carrier, Noble Group, reported that fourth quarter net profits rose by 13 times and nearly four times, respectively.

China Shipping, which focuses on energy shipping such as oil and coal, started 2005 strongly, with January gross revenue rising 42 percent, analysts said, citing company data.

Stripping out the effect of Chinese New Year, which fell in February this year but in January last year, its average freight rate rose 15 percent year on year, CSFB said.

China's oil consumption growth in 2005 may slow slightly from 2004 levels, due partly to a higher base and government tightening measures, CSFB¡¯s Karen Chan said in a research note.

"We believe that the demand for oil imports by China will remain strong," she said.

CSFB forecasts China Shipping's net profit will rise 79 percent to 1.83 billion yuan for 2004 and by another 26 percent to 2.32 billion yuan in 2005.